Editorial March 2023
Dear Readers,
After a grueling statistics lesson in probability, I wondered aloud how realistic it would be to apply concepts of probability to real life. According to my teacher, myths such as the law of averages are more popular than the probability laws we study. This myth leads people to think that a series of certain events leave them luckier or more likely to win or to do something, and it’s something we see referenced often. For example, when playing a board game, Morris might roll unlucky numbers many times in a row. When his next turn comes, he might say, excitedly, “I will definitely roll a two this time! It’s been too long since I rolled a two.” The thing is, Morris, you still have an equal chance of rolling any number (if the dice 
is fair). Whether you roll six 40 times in a row, or not even once in 40 tries, you still have the same chance of rolling a 6 the next time: 1/6. Practical requirements for statistical confidence fall apart when they are applied to the real world. People are a lot more complex than a model system indicates. The law of averages might be a myth, but I still believe in some March luck. There’s certainly no harm in expecting the best and working for it.
Love,
Editor Jaanu
